Postscript to the taking of Avdeevka
On last night’s edition of Evening with Vladimir Solovyov, which I caught after submitting my latest analysis of the Russian victory in Avdeevka, one panelist made a point about the significance of the win at Avdeevka that bears repeating here.
The conquest of Avdeevka overturned entirely the smug, face saving view of the conflict which General Zaluzhny prononounced in an interview with Western journalists at summer’s end when the failure of the Ukrainian Counter-offensive was fully evident. To the apparent consternation of Zelensky, the top Ukrainian military commander called the conflict with Russia ‘a stalemate,’ with neither side able to make serious territorial gains. This judgment was picked up with alacrity by the Western media and found special support among American ‘Progressives,’ who called for a cease-fire to be imposed from outside.
The wise men and women in America’s politics like Katrina Vanden Heuvel, James Carden and Anatol Lieven reasoned that after months of fierce fighting, the line of contact between enemy forces had hardly budged. And so we were witnesses to a stalemate. They even discussed among themselves how much Russia should have to pay in war reparations.
Those holding ‘dissident’ views, myself included, argued that Russia’s overarching strategy was not territorial gain but destruction of Ukraine’s fighting men and material in keeping with the principles of warfare set out more than a century ago by Clausewitz, after which movement on the ground would be swift and in Russia’s favor. This ‘dissident’ view is now vindicated.
The Solovyov show panelist went on to say that in the view of American military specialists Avdeevka was considered ‘untakeable.’ Hence the shock and awe that must be going on today within the halls of the Pentagon and at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The question for us all at present is whether in their shock and awe, and to cover their own asses, these U.S. and NATO commanders will not consider escalating the conflict yet again to re-gain the advantage on the Russians.
It is against this context that we must consider the pressure now being applied to German Chancellor Scholz to deliver to Kiev long range air-launched cruise missiles capable of striking well behind Russian lines. And please do remember that the loudest voices in German political elites calling for this are precisely within the Opposition CDU party, not from Annalena Baerbock and her fellow crazies among the Greens.
A test of Russia’s willingness to hit back in response to such escalation already took place yesterday when Ukrainian forces used American-supplied ground-launched Himars missiles to hit the central library and other civilian structures in the center of Donetsk city. These attacks using missiles that each cost $150,000 of U.S. taxpayer money had no military value whatsoever. They were deployed with terrorist intent to demonstrate Kiev’s ability to continue their murderous raids even after losing their main artillery base on Donetsk city in Avdeevka, 7 km distant.
I address peace-loving folks in Germany, in Romania, in Poland and elsewhere in NATO-land who do not want to be victims of a wider war that takes us to nuclear exchanges. I call upon them to consider that the Kremlin has indirectly, via state broadcasts like the Solovyov show, made clear its intent to destroy factories producing weapons like the Taurus at their source and to destroy air bases that are being used by Ukrainian aircraft to launch deadly attacks on the Russian homeland. With the Russian victory in Avdeevka against everything that NATO could deploy on the spot, the Alliance has lost its deterrent value.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024